Pakistan’s Climate Change Paradox.
In global rank Pakistan is positioned as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change, this ranking is underscored by frequent exposure to devastating floods, heatwaves, and glacial melt. Despite contributing less than 0.9% to global greenhouse gas emissions (Global Carbon Project, 2023) it is confronted by such a calamity. This stark disparity between its negligible role in causing climate change and the severe consequences it endures exemplifies an unjust global order. While nations like China (31%), the United States (12%), India (7%) and EU dominate the emissions landscape, Pakistan’s pleas for shared responsibility have yielded limited or no tangible support. For decades, Pakistan has amplified this issue on international platforms, notably during COP[1] meetings and UNFCC[2], yet the burden of adaptation and mitigation falls disproportionately on its own shoulders. The state, its citizens, and civil society must awaken from the illusion that external aid will come. Waiting for foreign intervention is “stupid, futile, and onerous.” This paper explores Pakistan’s climate vulnerability, evaluates its current commitments, and proposes internal strategies to address this existential calamity.
Pakistan’s Climate Vulnerability in Context
Pakistan’s ranking as the fifth most affected nation by climate change is not a static statistic but a reflection of its escalating environmental and socioeconomic fragility. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Pakistan is placed at 5th place due to worsening conditions (ND-GAIN, 2024). The 2022 floods alone—a direct manifestation of climate change—submerged one-third of the country, killed over 1,700 people, and caused damages exceeding $30 billion (World Bank, 2023). These events are compounded by the rapid retreat of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, which feed the Indus River system, that is the Pakistan’s agricultural lifeline as it threatens water security for 255 million people[3].
Despite its vulnerability, Pakistan’s contribution to global emissions remains trivial. At approximately 0.8-0.9% of the global total (around 400-500 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually), its footprint pales in comparison to major emitters (EDGAR, 2023). The energy sector accounts for 46% of its emissions, followed closely by agriculture at 43%, with methane from livestock and rice cultivation playing a significant role (Pakistan NDC, 2025). Yet, this modest output does not exempt Pakistan from the consequences of a warming planet, driven largely by industrialized nations. The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2025 ranks Pakistan 31st, with high ratings for low per-capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use, but low scores in climate policy and a dismal performance in renewable energy adoption. This mixed assessment underscores a critical gap: Pakistan’s efforts lag behind its needs.
Under the Paris Agreement’s COP-21[4] framework, Pakistan submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2025, pledging a 15% emissions reduction by 2030 from a 2015 baseline. It also aims to shift 60% of its energy mix to renewables by 2030, an ambitious target requiring an estimated $100 billion in investment. However, these commitments remain aspirational without robust internal mechanisms and financing, given the reluctance of high-emitting countries to fully honor their climate finance pledges under the $100 billion annual COP promise.
[1] Conference of the Parties, under the UNFCCC
[2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
[3] According to United Nations, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division, www.worldometers
[4] COP21 was held in Paris, France.
The Fallacy of External Dependence
Pakistan’s historical reliance on external assistance—whether financial or technological—has proven inadequate. The preamble rightly critiques this as an “illusory daydreaming.” Post-2022 flood recovery efforts, for instance, saw pledges of $10 billion from international donors, yet only a fraction materialized by 2025 (UN OCHA, 2025). This gap reinforces the need for self-reliance. Major emitters like China, the United States, and India, while morally and historically accountable for their outsized contributions, face no binding obligation to directly alleviate Pakistan’s plight beyond voluntary aid. The COP framework, while equitable in theory, falters in practice, leaving vulnerable nations to fend for themselves. Pakistan must reject passivity and chart a pragmatic, internally driven path forward.
Remedial Strategies: A Call for Internal Action
To mitigate and adapt to climate change, Pakistan requires distinct, unambiguous strategies tailored to its unique geographic, economic, and social context. These must be actionable, stakeholder-inclusive, and resilient to external funding uncertainties.
- Decentralized Renewable Energy Deployment
Pakistan’s renewable energy share is a mere 4% of its energy mix (IRENA, 2024), far below its 60% target. Solar and wind potential in Sindh and Balochistan remains untapped due to centralized planning and funding bottlenecks. A decentralized approach—empowering local governments and communities to install small-scale solar grids and micro-hydropower systems—could accelerate progress. Public-private partnerships, incentivized by tax breaks and low-interest loans, could mobilize the $10-15 billion annually needed, reducing reliance on the $100 billion NDC estimate. - Climate-Smart Agriculture
With agriculture contributing 43% of emissions and employing 40% of the workforce, Pakistan must transition to sustainable practices. Techniques like precision irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and methane-reducing livestock feed additives could cut emissions by 10-15% while bolstering food security (FAO, 2024). Farmer cooperatives, supported by government subsidies and extension services, can drive adoption, requiring an initial investment of $2-3 billion—feasible within existing budgets if reallocated from fossil fuel subsidies. - Reforestation and Ecosystem Restoration
Deforestation and land degradation exacerbate Pakistan’s vulnerability. The Billion Tree Tsunami, launched in 2014, planted 1.18 billion trees by 2023, proving scalability (WWF Pakistan, 2024). Expanding this to a “Ten Billion Tree” initiative by 2035, targeting degraded watersheds and urban areas, could sequester 50 million tons of CO₂ annually while mitigating floods. Community-led planting, funded through carbon credits and a restructured national forestry budget, offers a cost-effective solution.
- Urban Resilience and Infrastructure Overhaul
Cities like Karachi and Lahore face heatwaves and flooding, worsened by poor planning. Retrofitting urban areas with green roofs, permeable pavements, and early-warning systems could reduce losses by 20-30% (ADB, 2024). A $5 billion, five-year plan—financed through municipal bonds and redirected development funds—would prioritize high-risk zones, integrating civil society in implementation. - Stakeholder Synergy
Success hinges on collaboration among the state, private sector, and civil society. A National Climate Task Force, comprising scientists, policymakers, and community leaders, could align efforts, monitor progress, and ensure transparency. Annual climate forums would sustain momentum, fostering accountability without external crutches.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s status as the fifth most climate-vulnerable nation, is in contrast with its 0.9% emissions contribution, lays bare a global inequity. Yet, as the preamble asserts, waiting for external saviors is futile. The NDC’s 15% emissions reduction and 60% renewable energy goals are laudable, but their realization demands internal resolve. By leveraging decentralized renewables, climate-smart agriculture, reforestation, urban resilience, and stakeholder unity, Pakistan can mitigate its risks and model self-reliance. The $100 billion price tag is daunting, but phased, localized strategies can bridge the gap.
References
- Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2024). Urban Resilience in South Asia: A Roadmap.
- (2023). Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Database. European Commission.
- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2024). Climate-Smart Agriculture in Pakistan.
- (2021). Global Climate Risk Index 2021.
- Global Carbon Project. (2023). Global Carbon Budget 2023.
- International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2024). Renewable Energy Outlook: Pakistan.
- ND-GAIN. (2024). Country Index Rankings 2024. University of Notre Dame.
- Pakistan NDC. (2025). Nationally Determined Contribution Update. Government of Pakistan.
- UN OCHA. (2025). Pakistan Flood Recovery Funding Report.
- World Bank. (2023). Pakistan Floods 2022: Damage and Needs Assessment.
- WWF Pakistan. (2024). Billion Tree Tsunami Impact Report.
Pakistan’s Climate Change Paradox. Vulnerability, Responsibility, and Internal Action IRM
By:
Dr. Roomi Hayat
CEO – Institute of Rural Management (IRM)
Chairperson – Climate Action Form (CAF)
Chairperson – Human Resource Development Network (HRDN)
